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Shiller sees scope for further home price declines up to 25%

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price national index recorded a 16.6% decline in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago. That eclipsed the previous record of 15.1% set during the.

The numbers: The S&P/Case-Shiller national index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% and was up 6.5% compared to a year ago in March. The 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% and was 6.8%.

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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.2% annual increase in October 2015 versus a 4.9% increase in September 2015. The 10-city composite increased 5.1% in the year to October compared to 4.9% previously.

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A jump in the national S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index suggests that the very steep price drops of the past few years may be over. That is the first quarter-over-quarter improvement in three years. Prices in the national index are down 14.9% compared with the second quarter of 2008, the report said. But that is better than the record 19.1% decline that was set in the first three months of 2009.

According to the February 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.6% from January ’11 to February ’11, down 40.5% from a peak in May 2006 and down 3.5% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported last May and the third consecutive month of year-over.

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Robert Shiller, the Yale professor who started the index along with Karl Case of Wellesley, said this month that "there’s a substantial risk of home prices falling another 15%, 20% or 25. (see. The further declines in house prices. may have induced some to pay up to beat the deadline and to favor higher priced "traditional" house sales over.